Fareed Zakaria is a familiar pundit who writes a weekly foreign affairs column for the Washington Post and hosts CNN’s Sunday program “Fareed Zakaria GPS.” He has written a dozen books, most recently “Age of Revolutions” (2024).
Pundits express their opinions on topics that interest them, particularly those in which they have expertise. With society today wedded to TV and radio and marinated in social media sites such as Facebook and Instagram, this is a golden age for punditry. Often viewed negatively if their modus operandi veers loudly to the political right or left, there is a more serious, analytical way of reflecting on current events. Fareed Zakaria is basically a centrist whose commitment to genuine insight is similar to that of other prominent intellectuals, such as Tom Friedman and Anne Appelbaum.
Near the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Zakaria published “Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World” (2020). It was not actually about the pandemic, but rather the world that would follow as a result — and our responses to it: “It may well turn out that this viral speck will cause the greatest economic, political and social damage to humankind since World War II.”
I read his book when it appeared. Now we can track its hits and misses. What did Zakaria get right, and wrong? In opposition to those with strongly nationalist views, he envisioned correctly that globalization would continue to spread, largely because of technological advancements in the speed of communication and transportation. We have seen it especially in places such as the United States, Western Europe, Japan and Australasia.
As Zakaria predicted, the pandemic widened the rift between the U.S. and China. Arguments over the origin and spread of the virus deflated earlier hopes of cooperation. At a deeper level, Zakaria often brushed off the idea that China would soon outstrip America in economic power. And, indeed, today it’s the U.S., spurred by a robust job market and consumer spending, that displays resilient strength, while China, in addition to a shrinking population, is faltering in annual growth rates and foreign investment.
Zakaria was hardly alone in sensing that COVID-19 would significantly spur the use of artificial intelligence and robotics, in part because people chose to work at home whenever feasible, with employers responding accordingly: “More robots in more settings will allow the economy to function while minimizing the dangers of infection,” he added. In the past four years, we read of breakthroughs in medical diagnostics and the early detection of diseases, in military intelligence and personalized shopping. In dozens of ways, we are learning to live and work digitally.
Although “not a fan of big government,” Zakaria welcomed a Wall Street Journal review of his book that singled out the popularity of “greater government investment,” “expanded safety nets” and “higher taxes on the rich.” What matters, he argued in Lesson Two, “is not the quantity of government but the quality.” A majority of the public wants government largesse without verbalizing that Ronald Reagan’s free-market reforms are inadequate to meet socio-economic needs today. It’s clear we’ve learned from history. No more Hooverian tight money and deflation as after the Crash of 1929.
One matter that Zakaria got spectacularly wrong in Ten Lessons, was in believing that on great issues, our country had moved beyond debates about whether it’s “left” and “right” politically. Since he wrote, deeply entrenched biases have split the nation in half, to the detriment of good government. Public discussion has worsened and become more vulgar, with public officials openly speaking of “vermin” and “human scum,” often directing violent imagery at opponents – a tragic development that is undermining our democracy.
In international relations, his field of greatest expertise, Zakaria acknowledges how often the U.S. has “misused its powers as a superpower” in dozens of “regime-change” activities abroad. But “basic attributes such as peace and stability are still intact,” he believed.
And then the dam broke: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’ savage terrorist attack, the ferocious Israeli response and worsening relations with Iran. Responding to American support for Israel, Iran-backed militias orchestrated more than 170 attacks on U.S. military bases and assets in the Middle East, injuring several dozen U.S. service members.
The lesson here (hardly new!) is that experts often fall short. Perhaps international relations are too complicated to predict with accuracy. Perhaps, as Marshall McLuhan remarked decades ago, “We look at the future with a rearview mirror.”
We don’t read Zakaria punditry for its crystal ball. Rather, we enjoy seeing a mind at work, thinking of what events mean for us and the world. Naturally there will be strikeouts and occasional home runs but mostly singles and doubles. Such pundits enlighten us and elevate our own analytical skills. And they are a joy to read.
Ron Lora, a native of Bluffton, is professor emeritus of history at the University of Toledo. Contact him at [email protected]. His column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Lima News editorial board or AIM Media, owner of the newspaper.
