By Jim Naveau
Ohio State’s 35-28 loss to Oregon in 2021, the most recent time the two college football powers faced each other on the field before Saturday night’s match-up, probably had a greater impact on OSU football than was realized at the time.
First, it confirmed Ryan Day had picked the right starting quarterback in C.J. Stroud and had his starter for the next two seasons.
Stroud completed 35 of 54 passes for 484 yards and three touchdowns that night.
Second, after Ohio State allowed Oregon to run and pass its way up and down the Ohio Stadium turf for 612 yards and appeared totally confused when Oregon scored three touchdowns on basically the same play, it was clear OSU’s defense needed some serious repairs.
That led to Day making his first tough decision as OSU’s head coach which was out in the open, not behind closed doors in the Woody Hayes Center, when he took the defensive play-calling responsibilities away from popular defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs for the rest of the season.
Third, that defensive debacle played a role in Day’s search for a defensive coordinator from the outside who was a proven commodity, which led to hiring Jim Knowles before the 2022 season.
Fourth, Knowles’ hiring worked out so well that Day went big again when he hired Chip Kelly as his offensive coordinator this season.
It’s possible all those changes might have happened even if Ohio State had won the 2021 game.
Maybe the biggest lesson to learn is that loss by itself did not eliminate Ohio State from consideration for the four-team College Football Playoff.
By the time the first playoff rankings of the season came out OSU was in fifth place. Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were No. 2 in the CFP rankings behind Georgia, but a loss to the Wolverines ended their playoff chances.
Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) is ranked No.2 in the Associated Press poll and Oregon (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) is No. 3.
The winner of Saturday night’s game obviously will take a big step toward this season’s College Football Playoff.
But with the playoff expanding to 12 teams this season one loss is not going to keep Ohio State or Oregon out of the postseason. Both of them probably could survive two losses but they’d rather not take that route.
Five things to watch tonight:
• Whose experienced quarterback plays like an experienced quarterback? Ohio State’s Will Howard is in his fifth season of college football and has 7,034 passing yards and 60 touchdowns at Ohio State and Kansas State.
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has 16,314 passing yards and 136 touchdowns in six seasons at Central Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon.
• Turnovers. Ohio State lost a fumble, had a pass intercepted and failed to convert on a fourth down near midfield in the first half against Iowa but the Hawkeyes couldn’t turn any of them into points.
Similarly, Gabriel has thrown three interceptions in the red zone (inside the 20-yard line) in the last two games but Oregon has won both those games by three touchdowns.
In a game with offenses like OSU and Oregon, mistakes could be much more costly.
• Is Ohio State’s offensive line really improved? OSU is averaging 6.2 yards per carry in the running game, up two yards per carry over last season, and its quarterbacks have been sacked only four times.
Left tackle Josh Simmons, right tackle Josh Fryar and left guard Donovan Jackson were starters last year. Center Seth McLaughlin transferred from Alabama and Tegra Tshabola is a first-year starter at right guard.
If they have a big game Saturday night against a good Oregon defensive line, it will confirm the improvement the stats seem to indicate.
• How big is Oregon’s home-field advantage? Oregon is 37-2 since 2018 at home in Autzen Stadium, which is similar to OSU’s 40-2 home record in those seven seasons.
Another variable is the distance OSU is traveling. So far this season, Big Ten teams that have crossed two or more time zones have a 1-8 record.
But it also should be mentioned that most of the teams doing that would have been the underdog at home, away or at a neutral site, with only USC at Michigan and USC at Minnesota losing while being the favorite.
• The kickers. If this game is as close as predicted, it could come down to a late field goal.
Ohio State’s Jayden Fielding is 2 of 2 on field goals with a 40-yarder against Michigan State and a 30-yarder against Akron. He is 15 of 16 from 45 yards or less in his career.
Oregon’s Atticus Sappington is 6 of 7, with his longest successful kick coming from 42 yards, this season. Andrew Boyle kicked a 50-yard field goal in a 31-10 win over Michigan State last week.
The prediction: Ohio State 31, Oregon 24
